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vannevar    
/van'*-var/ A bogus technological prediction or a
foredoomed engineering concept, especially one that fails by
implicitly assuming that technologies develop linearly,
incrementally, and in isolation from one another when in fact
the learning curve tends to be highly nonlinear, revolutions
are common, and competition is the rule. The prototype was
Vannevar Bush's prediction of "electronic brains" the size of
the Empire State Building with a Niagara-Falls-equivalent
cooling system for their tubes and relays, a prediction made
at a time when the semiconductor effect had already been
demonstrated. Other famous vannevars have included
{magnetic-bubble memory}, {LISP machines}, {videotex}, and a
paper from the late 1970s that computed a purported ultimate
limit on areal density for {integrated circuits} that was in
fact less than the routine densities of 5 years later.

[{Jargon File}]

(2000-02-29)

vannevar: /van'@·var/, n. A bogus technological prediction or a foredoomed engineering
concept, esp. one that fails by implicitly assuming that technologies
develop linearly, incrementally, and in isolation from one another when in
fact the learning curve tends to be highly nonlinear, revolutions are
common, and competition is the rule. The prototype was Vannevar Bush's
prediction of ‘electronic brains’ the size of the Empire State
Building with a Niagara-Falls-equivalent cooling system for their tubes and
relays, a prediction made at a time when the semiconductor effect had
already been demonstrated. Other famous vannevars have included
magnetic-bubble memory, LISP machines, videotex, and
a paper from the late 1970s that computed a purported ultimate limit on
areal density for ICs that was in fact less than the routine densities of 5
years later.


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